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hosts have an advantage
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this time there are two hosts and they both are top teams
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the schedule makes it possible
that particular teams have to play hosts up to three (3!) times to win
the Cup
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this can hardly be avoided and
makes it more unlikely for some teams to win - but not impossible
Host countries always
have an extra edge. Some times they suffer from the high expectations but
usually they have at least one advantage: Their opponents are extra careful,
like in an away game, especially in the first round.
This time there are two hosts. And not enough - they are both top
class teams.
What usually adds
up to that: even in most recent occasions, the African Cup Of Nations 1998
or the just played friendly tournament at Libya the referees (or linesmen)
have, let's put it this way, not been unkind to the hosts in critical situations.
But what makes it even more difficult for the others: Some might
have to play both hosts in away-matches to win the Cup.
Not enough: In the
worst case a team might have to play one host twice and the second for
a third away game. It seems rather improbable that a team can overcome
such a bad luck.
Now, how is this possible?
First of all there are two schedule versions around, which contain
two different scenarios. Which one applies is not known at this time. Either
the teams in Group A (except from Ghana) or the teams from Group D (except
from Nigeria) could be possible victims:
1) in the schedule version
available from the Ghana/Nigeria 2000 source:
a group A team (Cameroon,
Côte d'Ivoire, Togo) has to play Ghana in the first round and could
meet them again in the semi-finals. In the finals then they could play
Nigeria at Lagos.
2) in the schedule version
available from CAF source:
a group D team (Morocco,
Tunisia, Congo) has to play Nigeria in first round, might have to travel
then in the semi-finals to Accra and play Ghana and could face a final
with again Nigeria at Lagos
All other teams could
face hosts twice, except from when the schedule available from GhanaNigeria
2000 is correct: Then Group C teams have the edge: They could not come
across Ghana except from the final at Lagos. And that is at Nigeria, not
at Ghana.
Can it be avoided?
Hardly possible - it would cause damage to the whole organisation
of the co-hosting construction. To have the same chances Nigeria would
have to play at Ghana and Ghana at Nigeria at least from quarter-finals
on. This seems a bit stupid to take away the home team from the home crowds.
This all puts Nigeria
and Ghana even more in the pole position, makes it rather unlikely one
of the 14 others could win. But one never knows. It is also still possible
a team wins the cup without having to play against one host at all...
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