81% SURE: BRASIL WILL NOT WIN THE WORLD CUP! says Intertops

81% SURE: BRASIL WILL NOT WIN THE WORLD CUP!
says Intertops...

This is a component of	THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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Bookmakers give Odds for bets based on likelihood of the outcome. From the odds you can read more or less directly, what the experts with experience from various World Cups believe. Misjudgement would be costly for them
How to read from odds...

The Document first gives (1) an introduction to how the bookmakers odds come into being, (2) an example on how the 'experts' probability predictions have been recalculated from the odds, and (3) all the figures and probabilities for each team that have been derived from those values

see also the introduction into the topic:

70% sure: Brasil will not win the World Cup (- says THE SHOT...)

If you are going to the bookmaker and want to bet on Brasil for a particular match, the bookmaker will contemplate the odds he offers the following: He will say for example: ok, I think in 40 % of the cases Brasil will win this match. Then he will devide 100 by 40, that makes 2.5. So he should give you 25 for 10 if Brasil wins. But this means, he does not earn anything, so he will take off some 10 or 20 percent and make it 22.5 for 10. The more unsure the outcome is (the more unknown the teams), the more he will take off. Of course this also depends on the other bookmakers offers, you could go somewhere else when his offer is too bad.
Another influence is the distribution of the betters on the particular teams. This method only works perfect, if the distribution is the same as the bookmaker thinks the outcome of the match will be. If the distribution is different, it makes it a game for the bookmaker himself. If for example 80% bet on Brasil in our example, he will lose money if Brasil wins (in 40% of the cases), he will win money if Brasil does not.
This does not have too much impact in regular business because sometimes he loses, sometimes he wins, the outcome will be even.
In big events like the World Cup it is different. Many more people are betting, so that there are not enough bets to balance out the reslult. Bookmakers have suffered severe wins and losses on such big tournaments, some have gone bust.

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

What are the dangerous situations for bookmakers at the World Cup?
First of all: the team from the country of the bookmaker wins. Traditionally in a state of enthusiasm many people bet on their own team. Not so much professional betters, but those who only bet for big events and want to express their enthusiasm in some way.
Then it is the outsiders. Many people like to bet on outsiders they believe are good enough to surprise. One has seen Japan in a good match, another believes strongly in Norway to advance to the finals.
So if one of those cases comes true, bookmakers will lose. This is why they adjust the odds of those teams a little although they cannot adjust them much. Otherwise they will suffer a drop in turnover.
If you check on the odds that bookmakers give now for the World Cup you will find that the cut-off (the part the bookmaker takes off from the odds he calculates from the likelihood) becomes bigger the further the bet goes (Quarterfinal, Semi-final, Final).

How you see this? Look here:

how to calculate the likelihood from the odds...

* thanks to Dr Mohsen Zadeh-Koochak from the UK who was so kind to check on the calculations and gave the following important hint: there seems to be a difference how bookmakers in the UK and in other places quote their odds: IN THIS DOCUMENT the odds are listed the following:
when odds for example for Brazil to win the group are 1.1 it means that you will receive 11$ if you bet 10$. So your net win will be 1$. (This in the UK seems to be odds of 0.1)

We take the example of Intertops. This bookmaker, originally based in Austria and targeting the German market, is trying to create a more international market (with the help of Internet, for example), so the odds of Intertops might be quite representative.
As an example we take Group A of the World Cup. Intertops gives the following odds to win the group:
Brasil 1.1
Norway 5.0
Scotland 12.0
Morocco 20.0
To calculate the likelihood for the particular teams, you have to take the following first step: Divide 100 by the odds (we obtain a value in percentage here what is more familiar to non mathematicians, that is why we devide 100 and not 1):
Brasil 100/1.1=90.9
Norway 100/5.0=20.0
Scotland 100/12.0=8.3
Morocco 100/20=5.0
You can see that those likelihoods summed up make 124.2 and not 100. This is caused by the cut-off the bookmaker makes to earn money (and minimize risks). So to receive a normalised result you have to devide those values by its sum (here 124.2) and multiply them with 100.
This leads to the following result:
Brasil 73.2%
Norway 16.1%
Scotland 6.7%
Morocco 4.0%
to win the Group A.

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

So this is what Intertops thinks and they have to be experts. Of course, as stated before, some odds might have been a little adjusted, it seems likely it is the much betted on teams of Brasil, Germany, England and the much betted on outsiders, maybe Jamaica. But as also stated before, this adjustment should not be big - the bookmakers are competitors.
A second and a little more complicated example: who will advance from Group A to second round. The first step divides 100 by the given odds as in the example before:
Brasil 100/1.025=97.6
Norway 100/1.35=74.1
Scotland 100/2.5=40.0
Morocco 100/4.5=22.2
You see that the sum now is much higher. This is because 2 teams advance to second round. So you have to normalise the value to 200 instead of 100 here (devide by the sum, 233.9, and multiply with 200):
Brasil 83.4%
Norway 63.3%
Scotland 34.2%
Morocco 19.0%
to advance to the second round.
And now after it was explained how those values were created, here are the votes of the Intertops jury:

what Intertops thinks - who will win which group and who will win the Cup...

The odds were taken from intertops internet site May 22nd.
The following were calculated for you:

The groups: who is favorite to win them and who will advance to second round. What are the probabilities?
The groups (2): 8 diagrams show to you what the bookmakers experts predictions for the particular teams are in the further progress of the tournaments
who is likely to be seen in the quarter-finals due to the experts. But what is even mor important: by what probability value (tells you much about the luck-factor!)
the same for semi-finals
the same for final

the same for who will win the World Cup

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

Help in interpretation: Watch the percentage value for Brasil to win Group A. It says 73,2%. It means that if this particular World Cup is played a 100 times, the experts think, in round about 73 times Brasil will win their group. Which case we will actually see, one of the 73 wins or one of the 27 not-wins, cannot be told. More on probabilities and how impossible it is to win a knock-out-modus tournament just by strength you find in 70% sure - Brasil Will Not Win The World Cup - The Curse Of The Knock-Out-System.

Interesting is the imaginary 50% line. Any stage a team reaches, for which the predicted probabilities had been above this line, can be called 'expected' (due to their assumed strength). But any stage reached, for which the value had been below 50% can be called a 'success', or if you want it, 'luck'.
You might be amazed when you find that reaching the semi-finals from absolutely no team (!) can be expected. This is caused by the knock-out system. On a league based system the values for the favorites would be much better.

and now the figures, tables, and diagrams...

The Groups (1)

Group A	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
Brasil	*1,1	73,2	1,025	83,4
Norway	5	16,1	1,35	63,3
Scotland	12	6,7	2,5	34,2
Morocco	20	4	4,5	19

*=see above

Group B	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
Italy	1,2	68	1,025	85,4
Chile	6	13,6	2	43,8
Austria	8	10,2	2,25	38,9
Cameroon	10	8,2	2,75	31,8

Group C	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
France	1,15	70,6	1,025	84,6
Danmark	5	16,2	1,3	66,7
South Africa	10	8,1	3,2	27,1
Saudi Arabia	16	5,1	4	21,7

Group D	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
Spain	1,75	45,9	1,125	73,6
Nigeria	3,25	24,7	1,3	63,7
Bulgaria	4,5	17,9	2,25	36,8
Paraguay	7	11,5	3,2	25,9

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

Group E	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
Netherlands	1,25	64,7	1,025	85,6
Belgium	3,5	23,1	1,3	67,5
Mexico	10	8,1	3,2	27,4
Korea Rep	20	4	4,5	19,5

Group F	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
Germany	1,3	63,7	1,01	87,5
Yugoslavia	2,75	30,1	1,125	78,5
USA	20	4,1	3,85	22,9
Iran	40	2,1	8	11

Group G	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
England	1,45	57,2	1,085	79,5
Romania	3,5	23,7	1,5	57,5
Colombia	5	16,6	1,7	50,7
Tunisia	33	2,5	7	12,3

Group H	win group odds	win group %	advance odds	advance %
Argentina	1,4	58,7	1,01	86,3
Croatia	2,5	32,9	1,125	77,4
Jamaica	16	5,1	4	21,8
Japan	25	3,3	6	14,5

next: The groups (2)...

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

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next: quarter-finals and semi finals...

reach quarter-finals

team	odds	probability in %
Brasil	1,15	60,1
Italy	1,2	57,6
France	1,2	57,6
Germany	1,2	57,6
Netherlands	1,25	55,3
England	1,3	53,2
Argentina	1,4	49,4
Spain	1,55	44,6
Nigeria	2,1	32,9
Yugoslavia	2,1	32,9
Croatia	2,3	30,1
Belgium	2,5	27,7
Norway	2,75	25,2
Danmark	2,75	25,2
Romania	3	23,1
Colombia	3,6	19,2
Austria	4,5	15,4
Bulgaria	4,5	15,4
Chile	5	13,8
Scotland	5,5	12,6
Cameroon	6	11,5
Paraguay	6	11,5
Mexico	6,5	10,6
South Africa	7	9,9
USA	9	7,7
Morocco	10	6,9
Saudi Arabia	10	6,9
Korea Rep	10	6,9
Jamaica	10	6,9
Tunisia	16	4,3
Japan	16	4,3
Iran	20	3,5

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

reach semi-finals

team	odds	probability in %
Brasil	1,45	43,6
Germany	1,75	36,1
France	1,9	33,2
Italy	2	31,6
Netherlands	2,1	30,1
England	2,1	30,1
Argentina	2,3	27,5
Spain	3	21,1
Nigeria	4	15,8
Yugoslavia	4,5	14
Croatia	5	12,6
Norway	6	10,5
Belgium	6	10,5
Danmark	7	9
Romania	7	9
Colombia	8	7,9
Bulgaria	9	7
Austria	11	5,7
Scotland	13	4,9
Chile	13	4,9
Paraguay	13	4,9
Cameroon	15	4,2
South Africa	15	4,2
Mexico	16	3,9
USA	20	3,2
Morocco	25	2,5
Saudi Arabia	25	2,5
Korea Rep	25	2,5
Jamaica	28	2,3
Tunisia	35	1,8
Japan	35	1,8
Iran	60	1,1
400

next: reach final and win...

reach final

team	odds	probability in %
Brasil	2	30,5
Germany	3	20,4
France	3,2	19,1
Italy	3,5	17,4
Netherlands	4	15,3
England	4	15,3
Argentina	5	12,2
Spain	6,5	9,4
Nigeria	8	7,6
Yugoslavia	10	6,1
Norway	13	4,7
Croatia	13	4,7
Danmark	15	4,1
Belgium	17	3,6
Romania	17	3,6
Bulgaria	18	3,4
Colombia	18	3,4
Austria	28	2,2
Paraguay	28	2,2
Chile	30	2
South Africa	33	1,9
Scotland	36	1,7
Cameroon	36	1,7
Mexico	36	1,7
USA	45	1,4
Morocco	75	0,8
Saudi Arabia	75	0,8
Korea Rep	75	0,8
Tunisia	100	0,6
Jamaica	100	0,6
Japan	100	0,6
Iran	200	0,3

1. introduction

2. an example for calculation

3. odds/probabilities for all teams

	favorites for group matches
	diagrams for all teams
	favorites to reach quarter/semifinals
	favorites to reach final and win the World Cup

win the World Cup

team	odds	probability in %
Brasil	3,5	18,76
Germany	6	10,94
France	7	9,38
Italy	8	8,21
England	8	8,21
Argentina	8	8,21
Netherlands	9	7,29
Spain	14	4,69
Nigeria	20	3,28
Yugoslavia	25	2,63
Norway	33	1,99
Croatia	33	1,99
Danmark	40	1,64
Romania	40	1,64
Bulgaria	50	1,31
Colombia	50	1,31
Paraguay	66	0,99
Belgium	66	0,99
Chile	80	0,82
Austria	100	0,66
Cameroon	100	0,66
South Africa	100	0,66
Mexico	100	0,66
USA	100	0,66
Scotland	125	0,53
Morocco	200	0,33
Saudi Arabia	200	0,33
Korea Rep	200	0,33
Tunisia	250	0,26
Jamaica	250	0,26
Japan	250	0,26
Iran	500	0,13

Of course there will be a winner. The low probabilities for even the best teams just tells that luck is a predominant factor in a tournament played like this. World Cup the far better name than World Championship as it is called in German. And excitement of course is guaranteed when even favorites need luck.

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This is a component of	THE SHOT THAT PASSED RIGHT THROUGH THE NET
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